The NHL Draft Lottery was held last night before game one of the second-round series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers. The Detroit Red Wings once again fell in the draft, this time to number 13. The New York Islanders will have the first pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft, while the Utah Hockey Club will have the second overall pick. Keep in mind that the Red Wings’ draft record in the first round has been largely good.
Defenseman Matthew Schaefer of the Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League is projected to be the number one overall pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft. Michael Misa is projected to be the first forward taken off the board at number two. One scout said that Misa has “that ‘it’ factor,” according to Scott Wheeler of The Athletic. Misa has multiple points in 46 of the 65 games he has played for the Saginaw Spirit of the Ontario Hockey League.
The fact is that the Red Wings have yet to win a draft lottery, the best way for a team that has not had playoff success recently to acquire top talent. Despite this, general manager Steve Yzerman has hit on most top draft picks in his time with the team. That is not to say that questions cannot be asked about his tenure as GM. The latest of these draft picks is defenseman Albert Johansson, who made his NHL debut for the team on October 12, 2024.
According to the NHL’s website, “The 2025 NHL Draft Lottery will be conducted in two phases, the first to determine the first overall pick in the 2025 Upper Deck NHL Draft and the second to determine the second overall pick.
* In each phase, 14 balls, numbered 1 to 14, will be placed into a lottery machine with four drawn. The resulting four-digit series is matched against a look-up table that lists the 1,000 possible combinations to determine which team was assigned the winning combination.
* The look-up table of the 1,000 four-digit combinations assigned to each team participating in the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery is available on NHL.com. The table also lists combinations by team.”
Just how bad is the Red Wings’ lottery luck? The process to decide who would pick at each draft place was to draw a series of four numbers. The Red Wings would have won the second overall pick with a four-digit combination of 1, 3, 5, 11. The four-digit combination that got the Utah Hockey Club the second overall pick and pushed the Red Wings down to the 13th pick? 1, 3, 5, 12.
The captain of the Red Wings, Dylan Larkin, was drafted by the team with the 15th overall pick in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft out of the University of Michigan. Larkin grew up as a Red Wings fan and led the team through a rebuild. In 82 games played for the Red Wings this season, Larkin scored 30 goals and added 40 assists. At 28 years old, the Red Wings may need to think of their draft strategy after Larkin’s time with the team is done.
Whatever player the Red Wings select with the 13th overall pick in the 2025 draft will be a talented prospect. Having that prospect make it to the NHL is an entirely different thing. Statistically, a first-round prospect has a 74% chance of making it to the NHL. It is up to the scouting department of the Red Wings to pick the player they see fit into the Red Wings’ roster and in the timeline of when they will be in their “window” to win a Stanley Cup. Making it to the Stanley Cup playoffs has been a challenge.
ITR 39: Conference Finals – Inside The Rink
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