For a team in desperate need of a top-four defenceman, the Red Wings were fortunate that Simon Edvinsson became that right away this past season. The first rounder in 2021 drew comparisons to another Yzerman pick, Moritz Seider, nearly right away. Besides both being tall, smooth-skating, defensive defencemen picked at number six for the Red Wings, both of them are expected to be staples of the blueline throughout the contention window. After a few years to grow in Grand Rapids, Edvinsson emerged as a force on the Red Wings blue line. This emergence, however, will come at a cost as his ELC ends next season. With that, this season is the last chance to lock a player up to an eight-year deal with the new CBA coming into effect next September. With a rising cap and the last chance to get max term, it’s worth taking an early look at what Simon Edvinsson and agent J.P. Barry might be looking at right now as of extension discussions.
How Edvinsson Compares to Seider in His Contract Year
The best way to find a contract for him is to use the player Edvinsson has been compared to most. Naturally, Moritz Seider’s $8.55M contract will be what Edvinsson’s camp will use as a template. In Seider’s contract year, he put up 9 goals and 33 assists for 42 points. In his first full season, Edvinsson had seven goals and 24 assists for 31 points. However, Edvinsson generated all his points at even strength while Seider had 17 of his come on the power play, giving Edvinsson an even strength edge. Evolving Hockey has Edvinsson’s expected even-strength offence at a 4.2, higher than Seider’s in his contract year at 3.5. Meaning Edvinsson generated an expected 0.7 more goals than Seider did across a season at even strength. Defensively, Evolving Hockey had Seider at a -1 for expected even-strength defence in his contract year, primarily because of his historically difficult deployments. Although getting much easier minutes than Seider did, Edvinsson was up to an expected even strength defence of 0.8, while not great, at least positive to Seider’s negative. Meaning over a season, Edvinsson’s work stopped about a goal that a replacement player wouldn’t have, while Seider had one go in that a replacement player wouldn’t. Arguably most important is Edvinsson’s goals above replacement was at 4.5 to Seider’s 1 in his contract year. In the same breath, Edvinsson’s wins above replacement is 0.7 to Seider’s 0.2. All that combines to Evolving Hockey having Edvinsson give Detroit 1.4 extra standing points while Seider only gave 0.3. The advanced stats give Edvinsson an edge. Albeit context does matter and Seider was playing 62% of deployments from the defensive zone while facing competition at over +0.6 per Dobber’s Frozen Tools. This means the analytical “replacement” player used wouldn’t have faced those minutes. Even with all that, Edvinsson still looks, at worst, about on par with Seider in his contract season. His camp will almost certainly be making the case that he deserves Seider’s percentage of cap, and they’d have good reason to. However, there is more to contracts than the numbers.
Why Edvinsson Could Make Less Than Seider
There are certainly reasons Edvinsson may get below Seider’s number or percentage of cap. Seider has undoubtedly had a more impressive career to this point and was in a better place to command more money when his contract was up. Most notably, Seider won the Calder in his rookie year. An award Edvinsson wasn’t even eligible for. Seider has the ability to quarterback a power play and do it well. Seider also has the ability to compete with the best in the NHL every given night and handle those tough deployments. As much as the advanced stats I mentioned seemed low last year for Seider, he bounced back massively. Evolving Hockey has his xGAR at 19.1, up 18.1 from last year, and Seider was worth six standing points this season. Numbers Edvinsson, even at his best, may have a hard time getting to. Even elite defencemen like Victor Hedman and Jaccob Slavin only got up to 4.5 and 3.6, respectively. Seider also plays the far more coveted right side. On top of all that, when Seider signed, he had played three full seasons playing strong defence and chipping in on offence. He has the record for most points of any player who has had a season with 200 hits and 200 blocked shots. When Seider signed, he had proved for years that he could carry a d-core. Seider was paired with Ben Chiarot and Jake Walman for most of his tenure, two players who weren’t top-pair defencemen, and Seider helped them tread water. Plus, Seider’s percentage of cap when signing was 9.72%, if Edvinsson were to get the same percentage of cap, his AAV would be around 10M, a number over Dylan Larkin’s internal cap of 8.75M. Steve Yzerman clearly prefers to negotiate by dollar amount as Seider and Raymond both came in under Larkin’s number, regardless of what the percentage of cap would be. If Edvinsson gets 8.5M now, it would be the equivalent of 7.8M when Seider had signed and Edvinsson’s camp will argue he deserves the same percentage as Seider with the rising cap.
Why Edvinsson Could Earn More
Alternatively, there are some reasons Edvinsson could command more money. Edvinsson is the only top 4 left side defensiveman of the future the Red Wings have. Their right side is set with Seider now and Sandin-Pellikka to come later, as well as someone like Anton Johansson filling out the bottom pair well. However, their left side doesn’t have anyone that looks like they will seize a top-four role. Buium and Wallinder look good, but more as bottom pair players. Edvinsson could leverage an organizational need. There’s also more runway to develop with Edvinsson, he’s still finding his game and developing at the pro level where Seider has had years to show what he is. Offensively, Edvinsson could reach better numbers than Seider with some power play time that he hasn’t been given yet. Additionally, Edvinsson could get an eighth year to get a higher AAV than Seider, who only signed for seven years rather than taking the max term.
The Verdict
Overall, with the cap rising, Yzerman will want to negotiate by the dollar, and J.P. Barry will want to negotiate by the percentage of the cap. Edvinsson still has another year to prove himself and get a glimpse of where the cap will rise to. Edvinsson and Seider have been compared throughout their whole careers, and I think their contracts will be comparable too. Seider had proved his worth for multiple years during his contract time and also brought home the Calder as the league’s best rookie, so all in all, I believe Edvinsson’s resume won’t be enough to top him. I see Edvinsson getting a 7-year, $8.25M contract. I do believe Yzerman will get it slightly below Seider, as I think he will use Seider as his internal cap for defencemen. As always, this is subject to change, he could have a great season and force Yzerman’s hand for more, or a down year and lose some money. However, as it stands, I believe Edvinsson will be kept below Seider’s number but will get close enough to it.
Additional links will be placed for Dobber Frozen Tools and Evolving Hockey, as they were my sources for advanced stats, and their work is definitely worth checking out.
ITR 47: Then There Was Nothing – Inside The Rink
Discover more from Inside The Rink
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I think you have this contract pretty well correct. Although, if I were SY, I would lock in for 8yr/$60MM to guarantee our back end for most of a decade. Cossa and Augustine will join soon. With Pellikka joining within the next season, and bringing up Wallinder, Buium and Tuomisto – it will give DRW one if the strongest back ends in hockey – and entirely made up of SY picks!
I agree, I hope he can keep the number down as much as possible. Along with the group you mentioned, I really like Anton Johansson as a future bottom pair right side. Futures bright in the motor city.