I’ll start off by saying I am by no means a fan of Gary Bettman. I think he has stagnated the NHL growth-wise, and his marketing/PR decisions have been…questionable, to say the least. But the NHL Global Series is a great tool to expand the reach of the league. Playing games worldwide just seems like a no-brainer, and of all the teams to take abroad, the Arizona Coyotes seem like the league’s absolute last choice. But when Logan Cooley scored one of the better goals I’ve ever seen, Melbourne erupted. You heard that right. Melbourne. Australia. But I thought hockey couldn’t succeed in the desert? Let’s take a deeper look.
The Arizona Problem
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. I think hockey in Arizona, specifically, may be impossible to salvage. With how much the team has bounced around that state, there is almost an animosity among Arizonians. The recent referendum on a new arena proves to me a lot of the citizens are done with the Coyotes. But again, this is an Arizona problem. Not a desert problem. The Golden Knights and Stars are prime examples of this. But why did it work there while the Yotes are bleeding money?
The Core Fanbase
Time to throw it back. The year is 1993. The Minnesota North Stars have just been moved to Dallas. The North Stars had been in the throes of losing season after losing season, which had caused attendance to plummet. After failing to reach a new deal for an arena (and having their owner get caught up in a sexual harassment lawsuit), the team was shipped off to Dallas. Sound familiar? That’s because the Arizona Coyotes have that entire list checked off. The Dallas Stars won the cup in 1999 and established a core fanbase that would see the team through losing seasons. That is what the Coyotes have failed to do. It is crucial that an expansion/relocated team win within what I call “the novelty window.” This is the initial ten years after the arrival. The new pro sports team in town is a big draw, but it wears off quick. From 97 to 07 (The Yotes first 10 in Phoenix), attendance was relatively consistent at about 15,000 fans on average. Even though the team was middling at times, fans stuck by. But past that period, attendance was only up during winning seasons. And while there were spikes of interest, attendance was always near the basement of the league. Arizona missed the window. So what is the next move, and how can it be avoided?
The Model For Franchise Success
Unfortunately, it’s only a matter of time before the Coyotes are moved. So, let’s play out a hypothetical and use a successful expansion franchise to develop the formula for long-term stability.
Step 1: A New Market
For this franchise to turn it around, they have to get out of the state of Arizona. It doesn’t mean the door is shut on NHL hockey in Arizona, it just means the door is shut on Coyotes hockey in Arizona. Minnesota is a perfect example of this. But I believe the Yotes should pack their bags and head to Houston. Southern Texas is a market that can economically support a team, and the city of Houston already has three successful sports franchises. This gives them a new novelty window.
Step 2: All Gas, No Breaks
So, we have arrived in Houston. Great! New fans, fresh start. Here’s where we change our approach. Vegas Golden Knights owner Bill Foley famously stated, “playoffs in 3 [years], cup in 6”. And after urging his GM to continue to go all in after their magical first-season run, Vegas brought a cup home last year. So, the all-new Coyotes are going to do the exact same thing. They will do everything they can to win in the first years in Houston. This franchise needs to create a strong core fanbase. Yes, long-term success may be sacrificed. But deep playoff runs will create fans who will support this team through thick and thin. Because they remember when the Coyotes either brought Lord Stanley to Houston or had a memorable run that came up just short.
Step 3: Stability
So now that the run of success is over, some years of suck will set in. How do you retain a fanbase? You start with keeping around competent management. The Coyotes have been plagued by inept GMs, and that’s on the owner. Secondly, there will be memorable faces from those playoff runs. Keep them around. The faces of a franchise are important. You see the Dallas Stars, and you think Mike Modano. You see the Vegas Golden Knights, and you see Mark Stone. Right now, when you see the Coyotes, there isn’t much to choose from. Sure, Shane Dean was a staple. But he has started to disassociate himself from the franchise. The Coyotes need to have a memorable player who sticks with them like the fans will.
Summary
So, there is a layout of how to revitalize a stagnant franchise. I believe any team can succeed, they just require effort from every part of the organization. If Bettman is smart, he will move this team and try to put an owner in place who cares about winning. They have potential stars in Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther, and if things are managed correctly, they can turn the Coyotes around.
