Edmonton Oilers Pregame Thoughts

I hope you all had a nice week away from hockey. I hope any American hockey fans possibly reading this enjoyed their Thanksgiving holiday with their families. I also learned that former Oilers goalie prospect Kristian Antila, a 4th round pick (113th overall) in 1998 tragically passed away a couple of weeks ago. Condolences to his family during their difficult time.

Since the 2005/2006 season, 76.7% of teams in a Playoff spot on US Thanksgiving have wound up making the Playoffs at the end the regular season. Rewind to last year’s US Thanksgiving, Edmonton had posted 5 wins and 11 points in the standings. They were the third worst team in the league, and they were adjusting to their second coaching change in less than two calendar years. Fast forward to this year’s US Thanksgiving, they’ve posted 11 wins and 24 points. They improved by 6 wins and 13 points this time around. The vibe doesn’t feel like there’s much of an improvement because, after all these years, they still cherry pick which games or periods they’ll mentally show up to.

The two games played before the break were the sorts of enigmas that plague every Oilers fan’s mental health. The team we cheer for is like a box of chocolates, we don’t know what we’re getting on a game-by-game basis. After nights like against the Wild, also third periods like against the Maple Leafs and Islanders, we think they need to trade or fire everybody. Then there are nights like against the Rangers, where they play their best game of the season, it’s nearly 100% perfect, and we’re back to planning the premature Stanley Cup Parade. After that game, Elliotte Friedman tweeted that the Rangers might consider big changes and a shake up. Excuse me, it’s supposed to be our fanbase overreacting to a loss; not any others. Even if the Oilers do win the Cup this season, that weird habit of theirs will never go away. It’s practically in the team’s DNA to be like that, it’s just who they are and we have to accept it. It hasn’t shocked or angered me to see Edmonton once again have moments where they forgot what sport they were playing. I’m not totally lighting my hair on fire like I did last season, the last couple of weeks were just an eye roll.

I mentioned 2005/2006 being the start of that percentage, the year Edmonton went to the Stanley Cup Finals as an 8th place seated team in their conference. The Oilers started that season 9-9-1, and then won 21 of their next 37 games. In 2023/2024, after their nightmare start, they posted 8 game and 16 game winning streaks to resurrect their season before getting heartbroken in another Cup Final Game 7 loss. Both Game 7s were reached when trailing a series by 2 or 3 games. This team is clearly more comfortable being part of that 23.3% and playing with their backs against the wall. Might I say too comfortable? I don’t like how some of their loses looked, and it’s my job to be honest about it. But it’s not like we have another Decade of Darkness incoming, so please try to tone down the paranoia. Part of what we’ve watched this season is nothing new. Seeing one or two other teams pass us in the standings because they didn’t have a week off shouldn’t surprise anyone either. We can watch our team play again, so just sit back and enjoy it. The keys to the game are…

Rust?: This first key is quick and simple. Will Edmonton play like they’ve taken a week off, or will having that much time off before a road trip be beneficial for their energy?

Patience: Before the floodgates opened up late in the first period against the Rangers, Jonathan Quick, whose been aging 10 years backwards the last couple of years, looked like he was in the middle of doing a Ben Scrivens impression. Then the Oilers finally got a couple of goals past him and we all forgot about all those saves he was making. Just because the shots aren’t going in immediately doesn’t mean you aren’t doing the right things. Vasily Podkolzin finally scored his first goal, and Darnell Nurse scored in his first game back. Keep at it, don’t stop, and good things will happen.

Put A(Kessel)Ring On It: A former 6th round pick (164th overall) of Edmonton’s in 2018, Michael Kesselring has been a solid 3rd pairing defenseman for the Utah Hockey Club. He’s put in good minutes on special teams and has 11 points in 22 games this season. Trading him for Nick Bjugstad(also playing for Utah) would’ve been easier to swallow if Bjugstad re-signed with the Oilers. Kesselring isn’t Mikhail Sergachev, but it’d have been nice to still have him in the pipeline.