Tkachuk called it a year ago that Florida would see Edmonton in the final this season. Both teams are a year older, a year wiser, and contain fresh blood that’s eager to earn their name on the Cup. This series is going to be a hard test of wills. Florida aims to go back-to-back, while Edmonton seeks redemption. The Panthers proved just how strong the redemption emotion can be last season, but they’re a team that’s not satisfied. They came into this season just as hungry and added new players who have added an edge to the team, as Tkachuk said in his media availability. The Conference Finals were rather uneventful for both sides, with each team dispatching their opponent in five games. What could be concerning for the Cats is that the Oilers have won four straight games in two separate series. Very similarly to last season, Florida has won three straight games in multiple series, so that’s an excellent sign in addition to the team consistently scoring more goals than last year’s postseason. Barkov received an exciting surprise Monday morning as he was awarded the King Clancy Memorial Trophy and his third Selke; Reinhart, who was also nominated, finished second in voting.
What The Numbers Say:
Through three rounds, Florida’s top point scorers are Barkov at 17 (6G, 11A), Bennett & Tkachuk with 16 (10 G, 6A) (5G, 11A) respectively, Marchand (4 G, 10A) & Verhaeghe (6G, 8A) each with 14 points. It’s worth noting that Luostarinen, Reinhart, Lundell, Ekblad, and Rodrigues all have 11+ points as well. Florida’s third line still tops the +/- for the team with Lundell at +12, Marchand & Luostarinen both at +11, and Forsling comes in at +10. The rest of Florida’s regular roster is either break-even or positive; Sturm is the only player in the negatives at -3, but hasn’t played much since HC Paul Maurice adjusted his 4th line. Bennett, Tkachuk, and Verhaeghe are all tied to lead the team in PPGs at 3, Barkov has 2, and Schmidt & Jones each have 1. No short-handed goals from the team this postseason. Bennett leads the team in shots at 51, Reinhart has 41, and Verhaeghe has 38. Most importantly for Verhaghe, he’s shooting at a 15.8%, which is right in his realm of normal compared to his 8.3% during the regular season. It’s actually tied for the second-highest shooting percentage of his career. Barkov remains Florida’s top guy in the faceoff dot with a 57.9 FO% (176-128), Lundell is at a 48.2 FO% (109-117), and Nosek’s at a 45.9 FO% (39-46). The drop in faceoff wins is a bit concerning, as it was one of the Panthers’ biggest strengths last season. Barkov’s actually improved his numbers from last season, but there’s been a drop-off down the lineup. I think most concerning is Bennett sitting at a 33.3 FO% (56-112), but the team is still winning games and has improved other areas of the roster to compensate for it. Bob’s record at this point is identical to last season; he’s 12-5 through three rounds of play. His SV% is up from last season, .912 SV% compared to the .908. His GAA is also identical to last season at 2.29.
McDavid once again leads the Oilers in points at 26 (6G, 20A), followed by Draisaitl at 25 (7G, 18A) and Nugent-Hopkins at 18 (8G, 13A). Bouchard, Kane, Hyman, and Perry all also have 10+ points. Walman leads the team in +/- at +12, Draisaitl & Kulak are at +11, and McDavid & Hyman are at +10. A stark difference to last season is that only Jeff Skinner is negative at -1, compared to Edmonton having multiple players at -5 to -13. Perry leads in PPGs at 4, Nugent-Hopkins has 3, Draisaitl & Bouchard both have two, and Klingberg has 1. No one on the Oilers has scored a short-handed goal. McDavid leads the team in shots with 59, Draisaitl has 42, and Kane rounds out the top three with 38. Draisaitl’s been the best of the main faceoff takers with a 53.0 FO% (142-126), Henrique has a 52.8 FO% (114-102), and McDavid is at 48.2 FO% (92-99). That’s a significant change in faceoff workload for McDavid, as last season he was at 120-143 with a 45.6 FO% heading into the finals. Skinner has once again played the most games with a 6-4 record in 10 games. He’s got a .904 SV% and a 2.53 GAA. Pickard played 6 games this postseason and won all of them. He had a .888 SV% with a 2.84 GAA.
Notable Florida Players:
Florida’s second line was fantastic in the second round, with everyone scoring at least a goal. Seth Jones has settled into being a Panther and has been one of their best defensemen night in and night out, along with his partner Niko Mikkola. Mikkola’s having a great postseason and set a career high in goals (3) and points (5). Having Forsling-Ekblad & Mikkola-Jones as a 1-2 punch on the back end gives Florida the flexibility to spread out Forsling & Barkov when they’re on the road. The third line has been one of the best lines in the postseason & has consistently been the Cats’ best line in most games. Marchand has done an excellent job of elevating Lundell & Luostarinen to the next level. Defensively, HC Paul Maurice has the confidence to deploy that line against the top-end talent of the opponents. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them used against either Draisaitl or McDavid, depending on how the Oilers set their lines. Edmonton has more depth this year, but Florida’s depth is better than it was last season. The Cats have gotten more goals from their third & fourth lines while not losing the physicality and defense. Every single Panther defenseman has scored at least a goal; Forsling was the last guy who needed a goal. Ekblad stepped up his offensive production from last season to be the Cats’ top points d-man. Edmonton still leans a bit top-heavy, but I expect this to be a tight series. I wouldn’t be surprised if it went the full distance again. The Oilers have home ice advantage this time around, they’re 6-3 on the road & only lost 1 game at home. However, the Panthers are 8-2 on the road, and they’ve dropped one home game per series. For Tampa and Carolina, those were the only games they won in their respective series. This series could come down to just the goaltending, which would give the edge to the Panthers. It’s looking like it should be an exciting Cup Final with two teams playing their best hockey at the right time.
ITR 44: We Have A Champion…Again – Inside The Rink
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