Florida fans saw the video making the rounds online ahead of the Leafs’ Game 4 with an all too familiar chant: “We want Florida.” Well, you wanted Florida, you got Florida. The Cats dispatched the Lightning in five games, with all games ending in regulation, while the Senators took the Leafs to a Game 6, with three games going into OT. Due to the two-game suspension, the Panthers will be without Aaron Ekblad for Game 1, but Florida’s d-core hasn’t looked any worse for wear. Florida’s heavy forechecking caused plenty of issues for the Leafs during the regular season. While that’s not always a benchmark for how the playoffs will go, it wouldn’t be surprising to see something similar happen in round 2. While the Cats were viewed as the underdog in their opening series, that’s not the sentiment in the online discourse heading into round 2. A big talking point for this series will likely be the duel of the Panther goalies past and present, with Stanley Cup Champion Anthony Stolarz earning the start in net for the Leafs and Sergei Bobrovsky still the starter for the Cats. Friday morning brought the announcement that both Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart are finalists for the Selke. With all that said, here’s how these two teams match up with each other.
What The Numbers Say:
Reinhart leads the team in points with 6 coming from 2 goals & 4 assists. The Cats then have 5 players who have 5 points in Barkov (1G, 4A), Lundell (2G, 3A), Bennett (3G, 2A), Luostarinen (1G, 4A), and Tkachuk (3G, 2A). Marchand had 4 assists in the opening round. The Cats only had 5 players not record a single point in the first series. Luostarinen is the Panthers’ leading +/- player at +6, followed by Marchand & Jones at +5, and Schmidt was a +4. Game 3 hurt the numbers of some of Florida’s top guys in the +/- category. Tkachuk led the team in PPG at 2 while Schmidt & Verhaeghe both had 1. Reinhart, Barkov, and Tkachuk all had 2 PPA, and there were no short-handed goals in the first round for the Cats. Bennett led the way in shots with 17, Reinhart had 16, and Verhaeghe had 12. Unsurprisingly, Barkov was best in the faceoff dot with a 59.3 FO% going 51-35, Lundell was second with a 51.8 FO% and went 29-27, and Sturm rounded out the top three at a 51.1 FO% and went 23-22. As a team, they took 72 penalty minutes in five games.
On the Leafs’ side, Nylander was their highest point scorer with 9 points off 3 goals & 6 assists. Marner was second with 8 points (1G & 7A), and Matthews rounded out their top three at 7 points (2G, 5A). The Leafs only had two players not record a single point. Chris Tanev led Toronto in +/- at +3, OEL & Holmberg were both +2, and Laughton & McCabe were both +1. It’s worth noting that big-minute players for Toronto were +/- negative coming out of the first round, which were Nylander, Tavares, and Knies. Tavares and Knies both had 2 PPG followed by Nylander and Matthews with 1 PPG. Marner had 5 PPA, Nylander was second with 3 PPA, and Matthews rounded out the top three with 2 PPA. The Leafs also didn’t score any short-handed goals. Matthews led the team in shots at 21, Nylander had 18, and Tavares had 17. For players that took the majority of faceoffs, Domi & Matthews were best at a 59.5 FO% going 27-17 & 69-47 respectively, Tavares had a 52.4 FO% with a 44-40 ratio, and Laughton had a 51.7 FO% going 31-29. As a team, the Leafs took 54 PIMs in six games.
Notable Florida Players:
With the Panthers limiting Tkachuk’s minutes, it was the third line that stepped up big. Scoring a combined 8 points off 2G and 6A in Game 5, Luostarinen-Lundell-Marchand was one of Florida’s best lines during the first round. While many Florida fans wanted to see the Rat Line of Marchand-Bennett-Tkachuk, I said in the series preview that I didn’t think we’d see that line iced except for specific instances, which held true. The Cats only put that line out late in Game 3 when the team was already down 3-1. Marchand’s veteran presence has opened up that line offensively, especially the further into the series the teams got. HC Paul Maurice trusts them to be able to handle the big guns on the opposing side, and having three penalty killers with an offensive upside is never a bad thing on a single line. They’ve added great depth scoring to the team, much like how Tarasenko fit in last season. Seth Jones didn’t light up the scoresheet, but he had a fantastic series and was one of Florida’s best defensemen on the ice. With Ekblad suspended for 3 of the 5 games, he saw more ice time with Forsling, and their chemistry looked incredible together. I personally wouldn’t be opposed to seeing Forsling-Jones stay together and have the second pairing be Mikkola-Ekblad. Florida’s unlikely to ice that in favor of Forsling-Ekblad and Mikkola-Jones. Verhaeghe contributed in the first three games with heavy forechecking and solid defense, but he finally started scoring in Game 4 with an empty net goal and then scored on the power-play in Game 5. In a season that’s been defined by bad luck and low shooting percentage, he could be starting to heat up in the playoffs. Often called the Panthers’ most clutch player, Florida’s going to need him for at least a goal per series, but preferably at least two goals.
ITR 36: Coaching Carousel – Inside The Rink
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