Detroit Red Wings General Manager Steve Yzerman might’ve just thrown a wrench into the William Nylander contract situation, and after completing a trade with the Ottawa Senators for Alex DeBrincat, the Red Wings immediately extended the 25-year-old forward to a very reasonable contract. The extension carries a $7,875,000 average annual value over the next four years, locking up the dynamic forward until the 2027-28 season.
How does this affect the Maple Leafs and William Nylander at all? Well, when a forty-goal scorer, who was in a very similar situation as William Nylander, signed for under $8,000,000, that’s rough for William Nylander’s side. After weeks of negotiations, the rumoured asking price from William Nylander’s camp was near $10,000,000 annually, and although he’s deserving of a raise, that’s going to be even harder to get now on his next contract after Alex DeBrincat’s new deal.
A big situation in this whole comparison is the fact Alex DeBrincat was going to be a restricted free agent, compared to William Nylander being an unrestricted free agent. However, still, these are very similar players.
Some might value William Nylander a little more than Alex DeBrincat, which is fine; I’m not disagreeing with that. However, there’s no denying Alex’s deal is going to hurt the value of William Nylander. Both players are some of the best at their position, dynamic forwards who can drive play and score forty goals a season, but really they both don’t give you much defensively. Do I think William Nylander deserves at least $8,000,000? Oh ya, without a doubt, but higher than $10,000,000? I think that’s too much, coming from someone who absolutely loves the player.
If you still don’t think Alex DeBrincat is a fair comparison, you can also look at Timo Meier and his deal with New Jersey. The 26-year-old forward, who came over at the deadline in a trade with San Jose, signed for eight years with an average annual value of $8,800,000. Now unlike William Nylander and Alex DeBrincat, Timo Meier gives you a lot more defensively, ranking in the seventy-eighth percentile for even strength defense according to JFresh. That’s significantly better than where William Nylander and Alex DeBrincat measure in that statistic.
Now I know you don’t pay these kinds of forwards based on their defensive play, but in my opinion, this does play a huge factor in contract comparisons. If you wanted to look a little deeper into JFresh’s model, you can see Timo Meier ranks in the ninety-sixth percentile for wins above replacement, while Alex DeBrincat ranks in the ninety-second percentile.
That’s an extremely high number for this statistic and shows how big of an impact they can make on a franchise. Now William Nylander isn’t that far off; the 27-year-old forward ranks in the eighty-seventh percentile, which is still top-end. However, it’s under two players who’ve already signed for under $9,000,000 annually, let alone double digits.
You could also bring in other factors like taxes here in Ontario, but there’s also pros to playing in Toronto. The biggest example, in my eyes, would be sponsorship opportunities. The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the biggest markets in hockey; the image of one day being a franchise great surely has an impact.
Looking away from the financial aspect of how this new Alex DeBrincat deal impacts Toronto, the trade value for one year of William Nylander certainly took a hit. If you’re the Maple Leafs, does that return for Alex DeBrincat really intrigue you to make a trade? I don’t hate the return but that far better suits a team on the rise rather than a contending team with eyes on the Stanley Cup.
With Brad Treliving bringing in Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg all on one-year deals, I’m actually more inclined to keep William Nylander for the year and go all in on the 2023-24 season. The return on a William Nylander trade likely won’t be significant enough unless you really get creative. I wouldn’t be against acquiring Brett Pesce, but more would have to be in the deal. I just find it difficult to see Carolina parting ways with Martin Necas or Seth Jarvis with the Erik Karlsson rumours.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with William Nylander. I still think an eighty-year deal with an average annual value of $9,000,000 is most likely the outcome, but a trade is very well possible. The Maple Leafs have had a productive offseason so far but moving out William Nylander for a haul that helps the future instead of the present would be a huge mistake in my eyes. Given the way this franchise is set up for the next few seasons, management needs to be aggressive in this contending window.
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I think Nylander is jumping the gun, take what they can afford to give you. Then you will be comfortable with yourself and team. Prove you can have another 40 goal year..