If there has been anyone trying to will Detroit into the playoffs the last few seasons, it’s been Raymond. Whether you like it or not, asking Raymond to be a near 90-point player at this point in his career is unfair, but he might well do it anyway. After being one of the league’s best power play players, Raymond finished with 27 goals and 53 assists to be the first Red Wings player in the Larkin era to score 80 points. As I did with Kasper last time, I’m going to break down all of what you’re likely to see out of Lucas Raymond this season.
Offense:
Role, 1RW: Raymond is pretty much the bolt-on top-line right wing this season. While he has shown he can play the left side, his stats are clearly better on the right. Lucas Raymond’s role on offense is to be the team’s best facilitator and distributor. Raymond is a puck-dominant forward who is quick and skilled enough to dice up defensive structures. Raymond’s job is to dominate through decision-making and knowing when to shoot or pass, something he does at an elite level.
Where, right flank: In a zone set, Raymond typically will come up to retrieve the puck from the defence and operate on his side of the ice. Larkin, his most common linemate, alternates from the slot to the bumper during the play. Raymond typically aims to distribute the puck to Larkin in the slot for him to take his snap shot. If unavailable, Raymond will either look to create his own shot, and is more than a gifted enough passer to see his other winger cross ice. Outside of a zone set, Raymond is a willing participant in the forecheck. His retrieval is solid, and his first pass off the boards is one of the best kickstarters the Red Wings offense has. Raymond is comfortable wrapping around the net to disrupt defensive play or just get back to his natural side.
Pros: skill offense/vision: Raymond is a talent-based offensive player. The vast majority of his points come from accurate wrist shots or well-placed first assists. Raymond has a high-end offensive ceiling and leaves little to be desired as a facilitator. Raymond is also able to read players cutting better than most other wingers in the NHL. It’s not uncommon to see Raymond throw a pass cross crease to a seemingly empty spot, only for it to be caught by a Red Wing who was cutting in. Raymond became far more deceptive this season, frequently creating offensively with no-look passes. Generally, Raymond does all the finesse parts at an extremely high level and is able to drive a line on his own most nights.
Cons: Even-strength offense/extra-attackers: Raymond was fairly dependent on the power play this season. Now, was Raymond good because of the power play, or was the power play good because of Raymond? Regardless, his lack of production at even strength isn’t his fault. In terms of defensive zone deployment and quality of competition, Raymond’s hard minutes fall in line with most shutdown lines. It feels like I’m giving him an out, but genuinely, only Hagel and Marner had more points in harder deployments, and Raymond is only 23. For actual criticism, last season at least, Raymond was poor in transition. It felt like the breakaways were stopped far more than they were going in. On both sides of the goalie being pulled, Raymond could have done more as well. While not only on his, he could’ve padded his stats much better. More importantly, with the extra attacker, Detroit didn’t score a single time to force overtime. For a player who has been fairly clutch before, in the late moments of a game, Raymond needs to do more.
Eye Test: There are little to no complaints about Raymond on the eye test. He is always trying to make something happen; sometimes, he is simply handicapped by his teammates. Whether that be Larkin on a prolonged cold stretch or playing with a poor quality left-wing opposite him, Raymond isn’t always at fault. Raymond is also a plus defender, and that shows when watching. He doesn’t mind being physical and certainly doesn’t mind making the gritty plays along the board. Raymond does just about everything on the ice that you would want from a star-level forward, and if he takes another step this year, Detroit may have a superstar.
Prediction: Yzerman brought up a checking line. Hopefully, that means Raymond won’t be used as a shut-down forward again this season. If Raymond gets fair deployments, even if slightly easier on either defensive zone or quality of competition, hell, even a solid left winger, Raymond can break 90 points. Sadly, I don’t think the deployments will ease, and the cavalry likely won’t come just yet. Personal Prediction; 82GP 31G 57A 88P.
Defense:
Role, 1RW: Typically, wingers don’t have huge defensive responsibilities, but Raymond has a different case. His 99th percentile quality of competition suggests he’s basically in a checking line defensively. Raymond needs to be able to hang with each team’s best players, and he has done so quite well. Generally, Raymond’s defensive skill isn’t something that he leans on, but his willingness to involve himself along the boards or pressure in open ice makes him a great checking candidate.
Location, slot protector: Raymond is most commonly found as a more area defender. With his smaller frame, coaches have leaned away from deploying him along the boards too much. Generally, Raymond is there to disrupt passing lanes or transition the puck when he comes up with it. Both are things Raymond does at a solid level. It’s one of the easier defensive roles, and he handles it.
Pros: competence level: Raymond is willing to do what is asked of him and will do it to the best of his abilities. If the puck is along the boards, he has no problem taking on more physical matchups and attempting to get the puck free. Generally, Raymond follows the game plan defensively and will do what is asked of him.
Cons: Physical limitations/game-breaking skill: Raymond, despite being fairly bulky for his size, is still under 6’0”, and that does hinder him defensively. His reach isn’t as long, his physicality isn’t as imposing, and he can’t just absorb contact along the boards like some bigger bodies can. It’s out of his control, but it isn’t fair to just write it off. Beyond that, Raymond does what he is supposed to do adequately, but I’m rarely impressed by huge defensive plays. There aren’t the clutch stick lifts or poke checks that some other defensive forwards have. While Raymond is still a plus defender, he would still be far better suited against easier competition because the 99th percentile might be a little above his defensive skill as of right now.
Eye Test: As I alluded to before, the eye test of Raymond kind of gets it right. There aren’t any terrible plays, and if he loses his coverage, he will skate hard to get it back. There also aren’t any plays that suggest he’s going to be considered for the Selke, and that is genuinely okay. Raymond is an offensive winger, and his buy-in defensively says more about his compete level as a player, rather than his prowess as a defender.
Prediction: In my Kasper write-up, I mentioned how there’s no real way to quantify defensive play other than percentiles and maybe CF%. So, for my prediction, I’ll keep it simple and say Raymond will play about equally elite competition, and his CF% will go up by 1%. Not a huge increase, but one showing Raymond is getting the puck out of his own end.
Special Teams:
PP, high forward/distributor: Raymond does a ton of damage on the power play. He is typically found where you’d see a left defenceman at even strength. This opens him up for one-timers on his off wing or the ability to distribute anywhere on the ice with more time and space from up high. Raymond has been elite on the power play these last two seasons, and there is no reason to think something else will continue. Unless Kane moves to Raymond’s spot and Raymond takes the flank, nothing suggests any change will come to a top 5 power play unit last season.
PK, N/A: Despite playing minutes on it last year, I think it’s fairly likely Raymond isn’t on it this season. With guys like Copp, Compher, Rasmussen, Kasper, Larkin, Appleton, and maybe Mazur all being a little bit more projectable on the penalty kill, unless an injury comes up, Raymond should rest for a few hard minutes and focus back on offense.
And that concludes my second season preview. If you want to suggest who is next, feel free to leave it in the comment box below. Otherwise, thank you again so much for reading, and hopefully I’ll see you in the next one.
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ITR 47: Then There Was Nothing – Inside The Rink
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