NHL Playoff Series Preview: Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Different year, same first-round matchup, welcome back to the Battle of Florida. The in-state rivalry is back for the fourth time in five years, but slightly different than last year’s. Tampa holds home ice advantage this time around, as they finished second in the division while Florida finished third. The Cats were in the division title hunt up until about the last two to three weeks of the regular season, but once it was out of reach, they opted to rest their top players rotationally. The Panthers may not have the most stellar end-of-season win/loss record, but they’re not far off how they ended last season when they went 7-6-0 to end the year; this season they went 6-8-0. After two long runs into the postseason with short off seasons, it’s not surprising that HC Paul Maurice preached that health was more important than wins over the last stretch of the year. The Lightning are an improved team from last season after they made some bold moves, but so are the Cats, this is set up to be one of the most exciting round 1 series and I wouldn’t be surprised if whoever wins this series comes out of the Atlantic Division bracket for the Eastern Conference Finals.

What the Numbers Say:

Florida’s record this year was 47-31-4 for 98 points, while Tampa went 47-27-8 for 102 points. On the road, the Cats went 20-19-2, whereas the Lightning were 18-19-2, so home ice factors slightly more into where Tampa is successful. Both teams have been extremely successful on home ice, where Florida sports a 27-12-2 record and went 15-3-0 since Jan. 21st, compared to Tampa Bay, which has a 29-8-4 record at home. Florida ranks 15th in G/GP at 3.00, 7th in GA/GP at 2.72, 14th in PP% at 23.5, and 10th in PK% at 80.7. For the Lightning, they rank 1st in G/GP at 3.56, 4th in GA/GP at 2.63, 5th in PP% at 25.9, and 6th in PK% at 81.6. The Panthers scored 252 goals while allowing 223 for a goal differential of +29. The Lightning scored 294 goals and allowed 219 for a goal differential of +75, the best in the Eastern Conference. This season, the Cats averaged 17 PIMs during four games while Tampa averaged 16.5 PIMs. Florida had 115 SOG, 57 blocked shots, 133 hits, and 105 faceoff wins in their four games. Tampa had 110 SOG, 48 blocked shots, 75 hits, and 108 faceoff wins for their regular-season games.

Notable Players:

The Panthers’ big guns haven’t changed from last season. Once again, their leading point scorer was Sam Reinhart with 81 points, 39G & 41A. He had 13 PPG and 5 SHG and was +6 on the year. Sasha Barkov had 71 points with 20G & 51A. Of the 20 goals he had, 9 PPG and 1 SHG, he ended the season at +1. In just the 52 games he played, Matthew Tkachuk was third on the team in points at 57 with 22G & 35A. He had 11 PPG and ended the year at -3. Matthew’s unfortunate injury at Four Nations has held him out of the lineup since February, but he’s expected to return for the playoffs. If he’s not playing in Game 1, he’ll likely be back sometime in Round 1. He’s a big piece of this Florida roster and has been sorely missed, not just for his hockey talent but for the emotional leadership he brings to the team. Having him back should improve all areas of the Cats’ game except for the PK, which he doesn’t play on.

Despite his struggles for most of the year, Carter Verhaeghe was still fourth on the team in points at 53 with 22G & 35A. He scored 5 PPG and ended the year at -14. The Verhaeghe situation has been discussed to death online amongst fans, but the biggest positive takeaways are that he has his second-best season in assists. He still scored 20 goals despite a career-low shooting percentage, and in the last two weeks of the season, he looked like the Carter Verhaeghe fans know and love. The Verhaeghe that is Florida’s most clutch player in the playoffs and someone who thrives in the pressure cooker that is the postseason. Bobrovsky’s stats won’t be the most glowing on paper, much like how they looked during the playoffs last season. He went 33-19-2 with a .906 SV% and 2.44 GAA. In raw goal totals, he allowed five fewer goals this season than last year and had five shutouts, just one off from the six he had last season. Since the roster has been more injured this year than last, Bob’s been rock steady for the Cats and has looked like his playoff form since late January.

For the Lightning, the biggest change is that there’s no Steven Stamkos; instead, Jake Guentzel has entered the picture. Kucherov led the team & the NHL in points at 121 with 37G & 84A, he had 8 PPG and ended the year +22. Hagel had 90 points with 35G & 55A. He had no power-play goals but three short-handed ones, and he ended the season at +33. Point was third on the team in points with 82, 42G & 40A. He had 16 PPG and was +17 on the year. Jake Guentzel rounds out the top 4 with 80 points, 41G & 39A. He had 17 PPG to lead the team and ended the season at +18. Vasilevskiy went 38-20-5 with .921 SV%, and 2.18 GAA. He’s had a strong bounce-back year after last season and will likely be in the Vezina talks, although it’ll probably go to Hellebuyck.

Florida Players Who Might Surprise:

Usually, I like to highlight players who don’t get talked about enough in this section, but I’m making an exception and adding Matthew Tkachuk here. It’s a big question mark as to what he’ll look like in his first game back since injury. Florida fans got to see a bit of what the Samoskevich-Bennett-Tkachuk line could do together, and there’s great chemistry there. Before his injury, Tkachuk was playing some of the best hockey of his career, something he spoke about when he was interviewed on the Up & Adams Show with Kay Adams on YouTube. As of Saturday morning practice, Tkachuk was on the ice in a Top 6 jersey as a full participant, but HC Paul Maurice said no final decision will be made until Monday as to if he plays Game 1. It’s been unfortunate to lose him for such a big chunk of the season, and maybe the stats, standings, and matchups look different if he’d been in the lineup for the whole year, we’ll never know, but he’s an impact player that you always want on your team for the playoffs.

I spoke last postseason about Anton Lundell, and he’s taken a big step forward this year. He’s had a career year with 45 points split between 17G & 28A and the second highest shooting percentage at 10.8; only his rookie season was higher at 14.4. He also had a career high of 2 power-play goals, which is impressive since he plays on the second unit and doesn’t see as much time as the first unit does. He also tied his career high in short-handed goals at 2. He’s averaged the most time on ice of his career this season with 16:42 minutes. The Panthers asked him to step into a larger role this year, and he’s done a great job with that, filling in a larger role on the PK with the departure of Kevin Stenlund, and he showed he’s more than capable of playing in the top 6 when Barkov was out. HC Paul Maurice spoke about the trust Lundell’s line has earned to be put out against the top lines of opponents, and while they may not want that matchup all night long, they know those guys can play against the big guns.

Niko Mikkola is also worth keeping an eye on. He’s had a career year with 6G & 16A for 22 points and a career best +12. He’s had a rotating defensive partner due to trades or injuries, but the Panthers will play Seth Jones with him once Aaron Ekblad is suspended. Mikkola showed his ability to step up during the Four Nations when he was tasked with playing top defensive pairing minutes for Team Finland and held his own. Mikkola had 116 S, the second most of any defenseman; Forsling had the most at 195. One final player to watch out for is Jesper Boqvist, who’s had a great season with the Cats and earned a two-year contract extension. Voted the Unsung Hero by his teammates, he scored 12G with 11A for 23 points with the second-best shooting percentage of his career at 13.8; his best mark was the 14.9 he posted with New Jersey in 22-23. The Panthers also gave him a career high in TOI at 13:14 minutes. Jesper fits Florida’s system well and has played on three of the four lines for them this year and all three positions. His versatility is fantastic for how HC Paul Maurice likes to run his lines, since it lets Boqvist slot in anywhere. Due to the depth up front with Tkachuk back, Jesper will likely be a fourth-line player with Nico Sturm and Evan Rodrigues. It’s crazy to see Rodrigues as a fourth-liner after a dominant performance in the Stanley Cup Final just a year ago, but Samoskevich has earned a top 6 role and has played fantastically with the Bennett-Tkachuk pairing. Game 1 is set for Tuesday at 8:30ET/7:30C in Tampa Bay.