For two weeks now, the driving narrative around the Pittsburgh Penguins has been their lack of goaltending. Goaltender Tristan Jarry lost his job to rookie Joel Blomqvist and with the newly re-signed Alex Nedeljkovic returning from injury, Jarry was relegated to the press box against the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday. For the moment, the Penguins goaltending problem is solved as the team can afford to keep both Nedeljkovic and Blomqvist up, and while they must decide at some point what to do with Jarry, the team is getting the saves they need to be successful.
That doesn’t mean the Penguins have found success because even the best goaltending in the world can’t save Pittsburgh with the way it’s performed defensively. Penguins players broadly recognized it after the Winnipeg loss, with Sidney Crosby saying, “It’s not our goalies” when discussing the team’s woes. I am far from the first person to notice this problem — indeed, just from the eye test, the defense does not pass muster — but it is worth looking at the stats and a few examples just to emphasize how poorly the Penguins are performing right now.
Beginning with the season opener against the Rangers, the defensive woes were obvious. Alexis Lafrenière’s goal started with Artemi Panarin stripping Lars Eller of the puck and shooting it up ice to Lafrenière. Marcus Pettersson was back defending, but rather than either aggressively defending Lafrenière or blocking the pass, Pettersson chose to attempt to block the shot, which he mistimed, leaving Lafrenière wide open in the slot for an easy goal.
This was only the second goal the Penguins had allowed, but it was indicative of the Penguins’ greater problems. An odd-man rush followed by a baffling defensive choice leaving a talented player wide open. The pattern has played out repeatedly early in the season. We saw it again in Buffalo’s third goal as Bowen Byram and JJ Peterka rushed up the ice. Only Jack St. Ivany was back, and Peterka sniped it relatively uncontested on goal.
It’s not just the odd-man rushes, though. It’s also the lack of awareness of defensive assignments. Watch Ryan Graves on the tying goal for Winnipeg. He pushed Mark Scheifele but then lost track of him, directly leading to the goal. Graves has actually been much better this season — far less of a defensive liability than he was last season — but this goal was not good.
Graves was far from the only one missing his assignment on the ice on Sunday. Crosby excoriated himself for his performance on the game-winning goal.
“Look at the game-winner,” Crosby said. “I lose the faceoff. Then I don’t get my guy. And it ends up in the back of the net.”
He’s not completely wrong there.
We saw it again in the game against Carolina. Under two minutes into the first, Erik Karlsson lost Jesperi Kotkaniemi as they rounded the net, and Kotkaniemi got a perfect chance on Nedeljkovic. Had Kotkaniemi put a better shot on net, the Penguins likely would have been in an early hole.
But the bigger problem for the Penguins is not just how poorly the team has been defensively. It’s that the defensive lapses are coming from their top two lines. (Note: All stats at 5v5.)
The top two lines have been buried in Corsi against this season. Pettersson is currently third worst in the entire league in CA with 140. Karlsson is tied for sixth with Crosby at 136. Kris Letang is 15th worst at 127 CA, and his partner, Matt Grzelcyk, is 18th with 122. Only New Jersey has more players in the bottom 20. Crosby’s line has been buried along with him. Anthony Beauvillier, who was Crosby’s left winger until the Winnipeg game, ranked 35th worst at 109. Bryan Rust, who only returned from injury against Buffalo, is still in the bottom 100 for CA, indicative of the struggles of that line as a whole. Evgeni Malkin also ranks in the bottom 100, as does Drew O’Connor.
But Pettersson’s 54.69 CF% at 5v5 indicates that he is producing more chances than he is giving up, meaning that he is ultimately generating some offense. He is also third in the league in CF with 169. Crosby, on the other hand, has a CF% under 50 (49.25), indicating that, while it is nearly even, he is both giving up chances and not taking them, which is a painful combination for someone who generally sets the tone for the team’s production and is one of their best offensive producers. Letang is doing slightly better at 50.20 CF%. Malkin’s CF% is more favorable at 53.85% and 112 CF. Meanwhile, Graves is flying at 56.11 CF% and a 101 CF.
Crosby and Letang struggling similarly makes sense because those are the Penguins’ top lines and have not produced much throughout this season except on the powerplay. Crosby still only has one goal and is a -4. And while no one can deny that Letang and fellow offensive defenseman Karlsson have both struggled mightily with turnovers (Karlsson has 9 and Letang has 8), Crosby outpaces both of them with 11, tied for eighth most in the entire league. Graves might be tied for third most giveaways at 13 with Pettersson, but he also has the most takeaways at 5v5 in the entire league with 8. Crosby only has two takeaways and Pettersson has only four. The problem seems to be stemming from the top lines, which is an enormous problem for a team that needs every line to be responsible defensively and generate chances.
The Penguins also aren’t being helped by taking penalty after penalty as their defense struggles. Indeed, the defense struggling might be causing more penalties as they struggle to save chances on net through rough tactics. Pettersson, in particular, is guilty of this, having taken five of the team’s 24 penalties this season.
Of course, all of these stats need to be properly contextualized. Corsi Against should be contextualized with o-zone vs d-zone faceoffs. Crosby has taken more O-zone starts than any player on the team at 25, which is also tied for sixth in the league. Meanwhile, Eller, who is outscoring Crosby, has started almost evenly in the offensive and defensive zones. This doesn’t account for things like powerplay time since all of these stats are at 5v5, nor does it fully consider how time on ice affects these stats. It’s also only through seven games and against good teams. But it’s a good painting of just how poorly Pittsburgh has started its season. Stats are meant to numericalize what we see with our eyes, and both the numbers and my eyes tell me that the Penguins are hemorrhaging chances, and the problem begins with their top line, starting with the captain.
We also must take into account that the Penguins began against four teams that are broadly considered playoff locks and defeated the teams they were supposed to. But to reach the playoffs, the Penguins will need to beat playoff-caliber teams, not just teams hovering around the fringe like they are or those out of contention. To do so, they’re going to need to lock down their defense and stop allowing endless chances on an already-strained goaltending tandem. And that begins at the top.
(All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and NHL Stats.)
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