The Pittsburgh Penguins have found themselves in unfamiliar territory in the past two seasons. It once felt automatic that a team with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang would be in the playoffs, vying for Lord Stanley’s Cup. However, nowadays, it is a battle night in and night out on trying to make the playoffs.
This season is looking toward another battle. However, for the first time since Sidney Crosby was a rookie, the Penguins find themselves with the odds against them on making the playoffs. Even the last two seasons, when the Penguins failed to make the playoffs both times, they were projected to make the playoffs.
Now, with Jake Guentzel gone, and the core three now all in their later 30s, have the Penguins poised to finish with 89 points. That is around with where this team has finished their past two seasons. Something I personally would be happy and surprised with if they can keep that up.
I know people will disagree, and that is completely fine, but the Eastern Conference is a very competitive Conference this season. The Penguins still have a chance, but I feel the teams who are also in the middle have very similar rosters that can compete with Pittsburgh’s aging core.
There is one big question that will be the deterring factor of this season
Can the core of this team still play at a high enough level to make the playoffs?
Now, obviously, the core four of Crosby, Malkin, and Letang, along with defenseman Erik Karlsson, can all still bring their best at their age. Sure they are all old, but they are all still great players who can still compete at a top level in the league. For how good players usually do when they are 34+, these four are still way above average on their skill level. Crosby is still one of the top centers in the league, Malkin is still a solid second-line center, and Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang are still top two defensemen.
Crosby, 37, is still playing at an elite level. He can still compete and carry this team, and put up 90+ points. He is going to be a candidate for the Hart Trophy this season in my eyes, and is easily still a top 15 player in the entire NHL.
Malkin, 38, is still productive as well. If the preseason game against the Senators was any indication, he absolutely still has a lot more left in the tank. He has been one of the Penguins best players at five-on-five, and I look for that trend to continue this season.
Letang, 37, led the Penguins defensemen in five-on-five points per 60 minutes last season, which put him in the same company as New York Islanders defenseman Noah Dobson and Dallas Stars defenseman Thomas Harley.
Karlsson, 34, saw his production slide last season, but still played very well and managed to generate a ton of chances, and showcased that he can still move the puck very well, and show he is one of the best passers in the league still.
Now yes, these players can all still bring their best and play at an elite level, but there is no way they can do it alone. They, along with forwards Bryan Rust, Michael Bunting, and defenseman Marcus Pettersson, are really the only good players this team has left. Now yes, the Penguins faithful saw their competitive window coming to a close, however, with the core four still playing at this level, the fans still believe, or at least want to see, one last ride before it is all said and done.
Now, Kyle Dumas did do his best to potentially help this team compared to last year. The additions of Rutger McGoarty, as well as revamping the bottom six compared to last season, may provide a bit of a boost that the team has needed to get into the postseason the past two years. Is it possible? Absolutely. It is likely? Time will tell.
Right now, from my perspective, this team is, as the kids say, “mid”. They have too good of players to be a bad team, but too little depth to be good.
Will the Power Play Be Better?
The next question is, undoubtably, the second biggest question that needs answered. Will the power play improve from last season? I believe so. My reasoning is simple: They literally cannot be worse. The Penguins had the 30th ranked power play last season. Going back to the 2007-08 season, out of every power play a team has had since then, the Penguins 2023-24 power play ranked 443rd out of 520 previous team power plays. They were scoring an average of 5.47 goals per 60 on the power play, which is so low, that it is almost hard to do. A team with the talent like the Penguins should not be having numbers like that. They did do a really great job at getting chances on the man advantage, but finishing those chances were a different story. This team missed the postseason by three points last season. At one point, this team went 0-for-37 on the man advantage during a stretch. They won four of the 13 in that stretch. Even going 3-for-37 could have been enough to make the playoffs.
Also, and most importantly, they have a new coach overlooking their power play. David Quinn, the former Head Coach of the San Jose Sharks, joined the Penguins to help with their power play, and defense. Karlsson, who replaced Kris Letang on the top powerplay unit last season, never really seemed to mesh with Crosby and Malkin on the first unit. Quinn, who was the head coach during Karlsson’s Norris Trophy winning season in 2022-23, will look to get EK65 on the same page with Sid and Geno.
Positives
There are still several positives that this team has, and none bigger than the previously mentioned Sidney Crosby. He got his contract negotiations taken care of before the season started, signing for three years at a Crosby-esuqe $8.7 million per year. Now he can focus on getting this team back to the playoffs. As I previously mentioned, he had a very good season last year, and shows now signs of slowing down this season. I really do believe Sidney Crosby will be more in the MVP conversation this season compared to last season. I believe he was a big candidate last season, but with Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews 70 goal season, Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid and Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov both posting 100 assists, and Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan McKinnon having his best season to date, unfortunately the field was too deep for a great season like Crosby’s to be in contention.
As a reminder, Crosby put up 42 goals and 94 points in 82 games. Those stats, with the power play as bad as it was, with being 36 years old, shows just how good Crosby still is. He is looking for his 20th straight season with over a point-per-game, a stat I think he hits, especially with a better power play this season.
This season, Crosby, along with his right winger Bryan Rust, will have a new left winger to start alongside them to start the season. The question will simply be, who? We know the second line will likely have Rickard Rakell on the right wing of Evgeni Malkin. Crosby-Rust and Malkin-Rakell have been two solid duos for the Penguins. Michael Bunting, who was acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes as part of the Jake Guentzel trade, played alongside Geno and Rakell, and had some very solid chemistry. This line outscored opponents 15-9 in the latter part of the season. It is likely this second line will be the second line to carry over to this season.
Then, we have the bottom six.
The aforementioned Rutger McGoarty, who was acquired in the offseason from the Winnipeg Jets, could help provide a youthful spark in the bottom six. If he does end up making the lineup out of training camp, and if he could make an instant impact in that bottom six, it would provide much-needed depth scoring. Him on the left wing on the third line alongside Kevin Hayes would fit well, in my opinion. Another player GM Kyle Dubas brought in during the offseason was forward Blake Lizotte. He is a skillful, speedy, pesky fourth-liner who is solid defensively. His playing style will likely fit alongside Noel Acciari. Lizotte is good at forechecking and tends to win a long of puck battles. Lars Eller is also solid defensively still, but is not good enough to be a third liner anymore. Having Eller at Center, with Lizotte at Left Wing and Acciari at Right Wing would be best looking fourth line possible.
On defense, Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang are, as mentioned, still top players. Karlsson did not have the best season statistically, but this season should be an improvement. Letang should also have an improvement. He can still play top line minutes, and will hopefully improve on the scoresheet. However, he will also need more help from his defense parter, Ryan Graves. After a horrid first season in Pittsburgh, and a rough training camp so far, the hope is for him to be able to find his game that he had in 2022-23 in New Jersey. He was not horrible defensively, but when he had the puck, Penguins fans were holding their breath. If he can find his game, him and Letang could be a very solid pairing for the Penguins. If he cannot, the hope is he will find himself on the third pairing, where he did not seem to be that bad last season,
Negatives
The biggest negative this team currently has is the lack of a top left winger. Since Jake Guentzel was traded, the Penguins do not have a left winger that can be that game changing player that Guentzel was. Yes, Crosby has managed to help make players over the years who have been on his wing, but still, not having a player like Guentzel is not good for this team.
The likely pick to replace Guentzel on the first line is Drew O’Connor. Yes, he played very well with Sid toward the end of last season, and is having a great training camp so far, but Jake Guentzel was a 40+ goal scorer, elite passer, great forechecker and backchecker, and all-around dangerous. O’Connor is not close to Guentzel on all of that, however, if he can start to consistently play as good as he has in camp so far with Sid, this could very well be a breakout year for DOC.
Secondly, The Penguins struggled defensively last season. Not just the depth players, the stars seemed to struggle defensively last season too. Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Bunting, Karlsson, and Letang all combined to a minus-12 defensive rating last season. With Lizotte coming into the mix on the fourth line with Acciari and Eller, and hopefully an improved season from Ryan Graves, the Penguins depth should be able to provide solid defense like normal.
Next up, the Penguins acquired F Kevin Hayes from the St. Louis Blues this offseason. Hayes is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. He struggled making any sort of impact five-on-five and did not provide much scoring at all. He did not seem to perform that well at all in St. Louis, and will look to get back to form with the Penguins. However, he has done nothing but regressed since his impressive 2018-19 season with the New York Rangers. This season is a big “prove it” year for Hayes, and he is not the only one either.
Cody Glass was acquired in August from the Nashville Predators. He was drafted by the Vegas Golden Knights sixth overall in 2017. He has shown some skill, but nothing consistent to remain in the NHL.
On defense, the third pairing of Matt Grzelcyk and Sebastian Aho is nothing special.
Lastly, the goaltending
Tristan Jarry has struggled the pasty few seasons. He has been wildly inconsistent for the past five or so seasons, and his numbers have declined since then. Last season was a bit of a positive year, but once again was mostly inconsistent. He cannot be counted on when it counts. He has his streaks of incredible play, followed by streaks of struggle. He also has really no playoff experience, and fails to meet the type of goalie the Penguins need to contend for a Stanley Cup. He is also very injury-prone, and backup goalie Alex Nedeljkovic has not been reliable when needed. Ned had one good season with the Carolina Hurricanes in the 2020-21 season, and has done nothing to replicate that success. If the Penguins want to contend for the Stanley Cup before the core calls it quits, they must look at making some sort of goalie trade(s) before it is too late.
Now, things could go very well. Jarry could prove me and everyone else wrong and play very well this season, and the power play could become one of the top power plays like we are used to seeing, or the Penguins have another season of mediocrity with just barely missing the playoffs with a struggling power play and inconsistent goaltending.
Final Thoughts
Expecting this team to make the playoffs would be wishful thinking, but this team is still good and can contend for a playoff spot, especially if the captain himself has anything to say about it.
