Tuesday night was the right night to start the journey from $0-$500. Unfortunately, it also was a night of poor decisions and inaccurate gut feelings. Before heading to work Tuesday morning, while enjoying a coffee, I opened up to see what the Vegas lines were for the night and the over/under for each game. Right off the bat, the over-7 total for the Buffalo and Tampa games caught my eye as my target. I never shook the thought for the rest of the process. I liked the idea of a potential high-scoring contest and a potential 5-3 outcome with plenty of fantasy points.
I decided for this slate with only one lineup and $1.00 being entered for the $2k daily Dollar Single entry contest through DraftKings, I needed to make sure I had a goalie who would be on the winning side of a contest. I really liked the Winnipeg Jets to win as I did the Avalanche to beat the Kraken Tuesday night. My initial game plan was to roll with Alexandar Georgiev against the Kraken, figuring a good chance to win and a fast-paced game generating plenty of save opportunities. With a half hour before the lineup lock, the below goalies were being considered for my single-entry lineup.
Hellebuyck $8,100, Saros $7,200, Georgiev $8,000, Sorokin $8,400 and Vejmelka $7,000. My top target was Conner Hellebuyck against the Kings, and my second option was Karel Vejmelka against the Islanders, I thought perhaps going against the grain would be a decent approach and save me some salary to use elsewhere. In the end, the idea of my goalie going against the rebuilding LA Kings felt like the best decision.
The three core pieces to my lineup were Roman Josi ($7,400), Filip Forsberg ($6,700), and Kirill Kaprizov ($7,700) The goal for the rest of the lineup was simple: I wanted exposure to the Lightning and Sabres game from both teams. I had locked in Brayden Point, Michael Eyssimont, Casey Middelstadt, and Zach Benson as the four I wanted in that game. I wanted Point as I knew he was playing bumper on the power play and figured that was cheap exposure to Kucherov. I went with Michael Eyssimont as another low-price, low-owned option, again trying to get cheap exposure to a potentially high-scoring affair. Middelstadt ($3,100) and Benson ($2500) play on the same line, so I was hoping for a goal from one of the two at a depressed cost. unfortunately, it didn’t happen even though Benson almost snuck one in on his only shot on goal.
My full roster and the 1st Place roster are below to compare. My goalie decision was the difference between finishing with a profitable night or donating my money. Of the 5 goalies I was considering, two of them ended with negative points: Hellebuyck -0.70, who I rostered, and Saros -9.10. My choice of goalie only would’ve given me a $0.50 profit, but it just goes to show that the goalie position can have a huge impact on the result. You can handle a low point total from a skater, but a negative from a goalie is a huge hurdle to overcome, especially if you did not hit on the rest of your lineup, which, as you see below, I did not.
Night one might not have gone as I had hoped, but I was able to learn. I noticed some changes I need to make, which I will share in future articles covering the journey. I intend to play the Thursday night slate, and due to the number of games being played, I plan to build 3 lineups to use over a $5-$10 spend. -$1 TO $500 profit continues Thursday night.
ITR 35: Round One – Inside The Rink
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