Is Leon Draisaitl Underrated?

Leon Draisaitl is off to an incredible start to the 2021-22 season, with 23 points in his first 11 games. He is currently tied with Connor McDavid for 1st in league scoring and has been a considerable part of the Oilers’ powerplay that sits at a mind-boggling 46.9% success rate. Leon already has a Hart and Art Ross Trophy to his name, so clearly, the hockey world knows exactly how good this guy is… Right? Well, TSN’s annual top 50 players list had Draisaitl at 5th best in the world behind McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, and Kucherov. The Hockey News had Draisaitl ranked down at number 8. Is Draisaitl only the 5th-8th best player in the league? Or is he even better than the experts have predicted? Let’s take a closer look.

What do the Analytics Say?

First, let us breakdown the traditional stats (Goals-Assists-Points) between the league’s best players since the start of the 2019-20 season to present, and see how they stack up in terms of offensive production:

Connor McDavid GP: 131 76-149-225 (140 point pace/82 games)

Leon Draisaitl GP: 137 84-133-217 (130 point pace/82 games)

Nathan MacKinnon GP: 125 56-112-168 (110 point pace/82 games)

Nikita Kucherov GP: 71 34-55-89 (103 point pace/82 games)

Auston Matthews GP: 132 93-61-154 (96 point pace/82 games)

So in terms of net offensive production, Leon Draisaitl has been head and shoulders above anyone not named Connor McDavid, and he is closer to McDavid’s level in that regard than he is to MacKinnon.

Obviously, there is more to the game than just scoring goals and putting up points. What about his two-way game? Let’s compare him with some elite two-way guys in MacKinnon and Matthews. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Draisaitl’s GF% (percentage of goals scored for the oilers compared to opponents with Draisaitl on the ice) is a solid 63.8%. This number is actually slightly better than Mackinnon and Matthews, who have a 62% and 62.1% respectively since 2020-2021. While Draisaitl’s team allows more goals with him on the ice than the other two, his offense makes up for it. When it comes to face-off percentage, Draisaitl has won 55.8% of his draws since his MVP season, which is better than MacKinnon and Matthews, who have won 48.5% and 54.9% of their face-offs, respectively. One last metric I want to point out is Corsi for %. CF% is a percentage of all shot attempts compared to the opponent. This metric is used to gauge who controls the scoring chances and possession in the offensive zone. In this stat category, Draisaitl ranks last between the three elite centres at five on 5 with a CF% of 51.2% compared to Matthews’ 54% and MacKinnon’s insane CF of 62%. While Draisaitl doesn’t control possession quite as dominantly as the other two, he has a much higher shooting percentage than both, as he scores on 17.1% of his shots compared to Matthews’ 15.4% and MacKinnon’s 7.4% over the past two seasons. Essentially what these numbers and many other metrics tend to suggest is that although Draisaitl is worse defensively than MacKinnon and Matthews, he has such elite finishing and does enough other things to be as big or more of a positive impact on the ice.

Why Doesn’t Leon Get the Respect He Deserves?

Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid discuss the game plan (Photo by Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images)

When you play on a team with Connor McDavid, almost nothing you can do will make you stand out. Draisaitl plays a less flashy game than Connor. Leon uses his big frame to shield the puck and make nice cycle plays in the offensive zone, and he possesses an elite one-timer and an elite vision. McDavid, however, is a type of player we’ve never seen before. He’s the fastest player in the quickest era of the NHL. McDavid has the best hands and the best agility. The types of numbers that McDavid puts up and the style of goals that he scores keep Draisaitl underrated because people fail to notice how amazing he is on a nightly basis. The truth is, all the metrics I discussed earlier (GF%, CF%, FO%) and his points per game have all increased since his MVP season. Draisaitl is pulling away from MacKinnon and Matthews in terms of offensive production, and he is slowly closing the gap defensively. He is, to me, without a doubt the second-best player on the planet.


Discover more from Inside The Rink

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Lane Golden

Born and raised in Edmonton, Alberta, Lane is a passionate sports fan who uses an analytical lens to break down and discuss what is going on in the hockey world.

Leave a Reply

Montreal Canadiens Re-Sign Jakub Dobes

The Montreal Canadiens have re-signed goaltender Jakub Dobes to a two-year, one-way contract with an AAV of $965,000. This deal carries him through the 2026-27 season. Dobes played in 30 games last season, splitting his time between the Laval Rocket and Montreal Canadiens. He began the season in Laval, where he went 9-3-1 with a […]

Read More
Steve Yzerman, General Manager of the Detroit Red Wings

Yzerman: This Red Wings Team ‘Can Take a Step’

The Detroit Red Wings currently have $12.09 million in salary cap space after the team acquired goaltender John Gibson from the Anaheim Ducks and acquired free agent left-winger James van Riemsdyk recently. According to general manager Steve Yzerman, the team will likely stand pat right now despite having this amount of cap space. The fact […]

Read More
Tanner Jeannot of the Los Angeles Kings

Player Profile: Tanner Jeannot

Tanner Jeannot was born on May 29, 1997, in Estevan, Saskatchewan. The left-shooting forward played for three seasons with the Estevan Bruins from 2010-13. In his first two seasons with the U15 club, Jeannot scored 29 goals and collected 18 assists in 42 games and five goals and three assists in ten postseason games. Jeannot […]

Read More