The Toronto Maple Leafs entered the season with the second-best odds of winning the greatest trophy in professional sports. High expectations for a team coming off its best regular season in franchise history. Many in the hockey universe projected this roster to be among the best, despite completely new goaltending and a vastly different bottom-six. Some would argue that the roster brought into the season was better than last year’s and expected an even better campaign for the blue and white. However, fast forward to now, and the hockey universe is completely flipped. Sitting ten games in, the Maple Leafs are currently 4-4-2 with 10 points in 10 games and 7th in the Atlantic Division. From the excitement coming into the season to now hearing about which player should be “traded” and which coach should be “fired,” is a tad bit aggressive. This is a Maple Leafs team that many believed in coming into the season, and they are now ready to blow it all up, only ten games in.
Ilya Samsonov’s Strong Start
The first positive thing from the Maple Leafs early is that newly signed goaltender Ilya Samsonov looks solid. Samsonov currently holds a 4-2-0 record with a .920 save percentage and a 2.35 goals-against average. The 25-year-old goaltender has been one of the best starting goaltenders in the league this season. According to moneypuck.com, Ilya Samsonov has a 5.2 goals saved above expected, which ranks him near the top in that statistic. Samsonov’s strong play has been largely overlooked as the team’s slow start seems to be getting all the attention. Samsonov signed with the Maple Leafs last offseason to “bet on himself” and has lived up to it so far. It’s still extremely early in the season but seeing this strong play from your newly signed goaltender is extremely encouraging.
The Goals Will Come For Auston Matthews
The next thing to take away from the Maple Leafs season so far is how unlucky Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews has been. The superstar forward scored a whopping 51 goals in 50 games last season and finished with a total of 60 goals in 73 games. So far this season, Matthews has 3 goals and 5 assists for 8 points through 10 games. After seeing the pace Matthews was on last season, it’s odd to see the superstar with only 3 goals in 10 games, but there’s no need to panic. The goals will come with Auston Matthews, and the underlying numbers back that up. Currently, the 26-year-old forward has a shooting percentage of 6.3%, according to moneypuck.com, while the league average is around 12%. Obviously, this number should start to even out a bit more as the season goes along. Auston also has an expected goals of 5.3, ranking him as one of the highest in that category. Matthews currently has 86 shot attempts, with 48 landing on goal through 10 games, putting him on a pretty good trajectory for the rest of the season. The only players with more shots on goal than Auston Matthews this season are Boston Bruins forward David Pastrnak and New York Rangers forward Mika Zibanejad, who both have at least double the goals Matthews has so far. Even if you’re not an analytics junkie, the eye test backs up how unlucky Matthews has been, and it’s a safe bet to make when saying the goals will come. Once Matthews starts to find his stride, I do not doubt that the team overall will begin to change. Honorable mention to John Tavares and William Nylander, who have looked good so far. Despite the backlash, it’s also important to mention Mitch Marner has 9 points in 10 games, the goals will come, and the offense will flourish.
Help is on The Way
The third takeaway I have so far from the season and why it’s okay to breathe is that help is on the way. Many in the world of Leafs media are calling for a panic move, whether that’s a trade or firing a Coach/General Manager when there’s still lots to be seen. The Maple Leafs are expected to get defenseman Timothy Liljegren back soon and, on top of that, newly signed defenseman Jordie Benn within the next little bit. Liljegren was a key piece to the Maple Leafs defensive system last year and looks to take an ever larger role this season. The luxury of Liljegren being a right-handed shot should see him in the lineup fairly quickly with a great opportunity. As for Jordie Benn, who plays a different style and a much more Jake Muzzin type of game, it could still be a bit before we see him get his shot. The Maple Leafs have an overflow of left-handed defensemen, and adding more to the mix might not be the move. It could be argued that Jordie Benn is an upgrade on some of the current Maple Leafs defensemen with the pro club, but it’s hard to imagine one of the left-handed defensemen getting pulled out. If healthy, Maple Leafs Rasmus Sandin, Morgan Rielly, and Mark Giordano should be locks. Liljegren’s return is important because he could help struggling Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly out instantly. Rielly’s analytics have been extremely poor to start the season, and he played a fair chunk of games with Liljegren last season. Timothy is a mobile defenseman with good puck-moving skills, his place in the lineup is desperately needed, and I look forward to his return.
Adversity Early-on Could be a Good Thing as Proven With Past Champions
It’s important to remember that even some of the best teams struggle early. The Colorado Avalanche last season, Tampa Bay Lightning in ’19-’20, along with the Blues in ’18 and Penguins in ’16, all had quiet starts. Some were worse than others; the St.Louis Blues were a long shot even to make the playoffs around the mid-way mark and turned it around instantly. Give this young Maple Leafs team around 20-30 games with both their goaltenders getting some game action before you panic. Sometimes it’s better to face adversity early on than battle it late. We saw that last season with this exact team. The Maple Leafs will turn this around soon, despite the major criticism. A famous quote I’ll end off here with is, “It’s not how you start that’s important, but how well you finish” by – Jim George. Don’t give up yet Leafs nation, this team is too good.
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