After signing restricted free agent defenseman Jake Walman last week, Steve Yzerman has one piece of work left on his roster, Filip Zadina. The sixth overall pick from the 2018 NHL Entry Draft has been a point of contention amongst Red Wings fans for the past six months. In some eyes, he is a promising young forward who has been largely unlucky in his career, or he is a “bust.”
With the Red Wings training camp only a month away, it is surprising that Zadina and the Red Wings have yet to come to terms with an extension. The 2021-22 season was Zadina’s first full season in the NHL, and in 74 games, he recorded ten goals and 14 assists, averaging a little over 14 minutes a game. While his counting stats aren’t exactly impressive from a top-ten pick, his analytical numbers are promising.
While Zadina disappointed from a scoring perspective, he still generated a large amount of offense compared to the rest of the roster. From Money Puck, Zadina had a Corsi percentage of 52% by the end of the 2021-22 season, ranking sixth on the Red Wings. Only Pius Suter had a worse goals above expected than Zadina, who finished with -5.4, which is a mix of being unlucky and lack of confidence around the net.
Zadina didn’t have the required amount of pro experience to be eligible for salary arbitration this season. Hence, his only leverage in negotiations with Detroit is to hold out, which isn’t ideal for either side. Both sides are likely looking for a short-term contract that will expire while Zadina is still under team control. Here are four first-rounders that signed deals after underwhelmed throughout their entry-level deals that could be potential comparables for Zadina’s next contract.
Comparables
Michael Rasmussen
Signing Age: 22
Signing Date: July 22nd, 2021
Three years $4,380,000 ($1.46 AAV)
This isn’t the first time Steve Yzerman has had to negotiate with a recent top-ten pick on the Red Wings. Rasmussen has yet to live up to his 9th overall draft slot but has taken strides in his development over the past two seasons. During the 2020-21 season, Rasmussen played 40 games, scoring three goals and nine assists while also playing significant time at center up and down the lineup.
With his age, prior production, and position, the Red Wings and Rasmussen came to terms on a three-year contract with an average annual value of $1.46 million a season. In the first year of his new deal, Rasmussen recorded career-highs in all categories. In 80 games, Rasmussen scored 15 goals and added 12 assists while averaging 14 and half minutes a night.
Casey Mittelstadt
Signing Age: 22
Signing Date: September 2nd, 2021
Three years $7,400,000 ($2.5 AAV)
Drafted 8th overall in 2017 to the Buffalo Sabres, Casey Mittelstadt has been another top-ten pick who has needed more time to develop. In fact, before signing his three-year extension in 2021, Mittelstadt’s career point production was nearly identical to Zadina’s. From 2017-2021, Mittelstadt played 155 games, scoring 27 goals and 34 assists for 61 points. Zadina has played 160 career games, scoring 25 goals and 36 assists for 61 points.
While Mittelstadt played long stretches on the wing last season when he was healthy, he signed that contract as a center with top-six potential. Mittelstadt still nearly matched his scoring pace from the prior season, scoring six goals and 13 assists in 40 games.
Filip Chytil
Contract Details:
Signing Age: 21 (Turned 22 Before the start of the season)
Signing Date: July 29th, 2021
Two years $4,600,000 ($2.3 AAV)
Fellow countrymate to Zadina and another 2017 draft pick, Filip Chytil, was selected 21st overall by the New York Rangers and quickly got a taste in the NHL shortly after. Playing in nine games in the 2017-18 season, Chytil looked to be a potential steal at 21st overall. He averaged over 13 minutes a game as an 18-year-old and added a goal and two helpers before being sent back to the AHL to prevent the first year of his entry-level contract from being burnt.
Since those nine games in 2017-18, Chytil has failed to take that next step in his development and establish himself as a top-six player. In his four full seasons, the highest point total Chytil has recorded is 23. Granted, in the 2020-21 shortened season, he was on pace for a 40-point season if it was under normal circumstances. From 2017-2021, Chytil played 186 games, scoring 34 goals and 37 assists, again nearly identical to Zadina.
Prediction
Looking at the recent history of Steve Yzerman and the rest of the NHL, players in similar situations as Zadina sign a multi-year deal that will expire with team control. The team gets a player under contract with a relatively low cap hit while still having the flexibility to either extend again in a few years or make a trade. Players receive a raise from their entry-level contract and have time to prove themselves for a future payday.
This is shaping up to be a make-or-break year for Zadina. While Zadina is only 22 (turning 23 in November), there is now a lot of competition in the Red Wings’ top nine, and that will only increase as prospects continue to develop and become NHL-ready. Zadina will have a clean sleight heading into camp, and it will be vital he is signed ahead of camp o get up to speed and impress the new head coach this season, Derek Lalonde. I’d imagine Zadina re-signs sometime ahead of training camp for two to three years at a cap hit between $1.5 and $2 million a season.
