The 2023-24 NHL season is wrapped up completely and we are waiting patiently for training camp to begin for the 2024-25 season. Just days before the 2023-24 season began, I wrote a predictions piece for the year, something I continue to do for as long as I can.
I figured that calling myself out for all of my wrong predictions would be a great touch. Let’s dive into how wrong my 2023-24 season predictions were.
Individual Award & Player Predictions
I wasn’t surprised at most of the award predictions being wrong, but the way that the season turned out, I wasn’t shocked at all that most players didn’t end up on this list. As you’ll find on this list, I went 3/17 on the individual predictions.
Hart Memorial Trophy
I predicted Connor McDavid to take home another Hart Memorial Trophy, but he ended up as a finalist this year. Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche won the Hart Memorial Trophy this year as he was voted most valuable to his team.
In fairness to me, predicting who wins what in the NHL season is like throwing darts at the board and hoping the result is the same eight months later. MacKinnon posted an impressive 140 points (51G, 89A) this past season. every stat this season was a career-high for the 28-year-old Halifax-born center.
The two runner-ups, Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov, posted 100 assists themselves, an impressive feat in their own regard. McDavid posted 132 points (32G, 100A) and Kucherov posted 144 points (44G, 100A), but ultimately, MacKinnon walked away with his first career Hart Trophy.
Lady Byng Memorial Trophy
Shockingly, I am one-for-two so far when looking at the predictions, but I can for sure say that won’t stay the same. Jaccob Slavin of the Carolina Hurricanes won the 2023-24 Lady Byng Memorial Trophy as the player who exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct.
Slavin posted 37 points (6G, 31A) in 81 games, he only had eight PIMs this past season which is an impressive feat with how competitive hockey can be.
Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks were the two other finalists for the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy.
Vezina Trophy
I wasn’t surprised that Dallas had the season they did, they have a strong mix of veteran and rookie talent and solid goaltending. However, when I predicted Jake Oettinger to win the Vezina in 2023-24, he was coming off of a strong 2022-23 season where he played 62 games and posted a 0.919 save percentage (SV%) and a goals-against average of 2.35. This placed Oettinger in fifth for Vezina voting during the 2022-23 season.
This past season, Connor Hellebuyck took home his second career Vezina Trophy, something I wasn’t expecting with the team bringing Laurent Brossoit back into the fold. Hellebuyck’s 60 games saw him post a 2.39 GAA and a SV% of 0.921, both of which led the league.
The Vezina is voted on by all 32 NHL general managers, and Connor Hellebuyck received 31 of 32 first-place votes. Thatcher Demko of the Vancouver Canucks and Sergei Bobrovsky of the Florida Panthers were the two other finalists for the Vezina Trophy.
Calder Memorial Trophy
I wasn’t surprised when Connor Bedard was named the winner of the 2023-24 Calder Memorial Trophy. There were names like Logan Cooley, Luke Hughes, Brock Faber, and Pyotr Kochetkov on the list eligible to win the Calder, but Bedard was ultimately my undisputed favourite to win the award.
Even missing 14 games due to a broken jaw, Bedard posted 61 points (22G, 39A) in 68 games for the Chicago Blackhawks. The amount of media coverage Bedard got leading up to the draft was crazy in itself, add his rookie season and Calder Memorial Trophy win, and it’s almost unendurable.
Brock Faber of the Minnesota Wild and Luke Hughes of the New Jersey Devils were the two other finalists for the Calder Memorial Trophy.
Art Ross Trophy
This is another prediction where I thought McDavid would walk away with another Art Ross, but Nikita Kucherov beat out both Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid with ease. I went even as far as to say that it wasn’t outlandish to see McDavid get anywhere close to 170 points in 2023-24. Yikes.
Kucherov posted 144 points (44G, 100A) in 81 games for the Tampa Bay Lightning and helped them secure a wildcard spot. The Lightning were eliminated in five games in the first round by the Florida Panthers, but it was hard to say if the Lightning had plans to push farther in the playoffs.
James Norris Memorial Trophy
Here’s one of the bigger duds on the list, Rasmus Dahlin wasn’t a finalist and wasn’t in the top 10 for voting, he ranked 15th in the 2023-24 James Norris Memorial Trophy voting. He posted 59 points (20G, 39A) in 81 games and was a core piece of the Sabres’s 2023-24 season.
Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks won the 2023-24 James Norris Memorial Trophy after posting 92 points (17G, 75A) in 82 games. Similar to Karlsson winning the 2022-23 Norris, Hughes winning the trophy shows we need a trophy that clearly defines an award for defensive defenseman and offensive defenseman.
Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators and Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche were the two other finalists for the James Norris Memorial Trophy.
Conn Smythe Trophy
In fairness to myself, I wanted my predictions to be outlandish, predicting Morgan Reilly and the Toronto Maple Leafs to be in the Stanley Cup Finals was far-fetched.
As we all know, Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers was the winner of the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy, and he didn’t even go onto the ice to accept the trophy. It later surfaced that McDavid wanted to be around his team and his own emotions along with his teams’ emotions after losing the Stanley Cup were behind closed doors.
While this caused controversy, there haven’t been many losing teams to receive the Conn Smythe, so there wasn’t a standard set in general.
Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy
I was hesitant to post a Bill Masterton prediction originally, but I chose Max Pacioretty to win the award as he didn’t play a full season or a majority of a season for several years.
Connor Ingram of the Arizona Coyotes won the 2023-24 Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy, the two other finalists were Frederik Andersen of the Carolina Hurricanes and Oliver Kylington of the Calgary Flames.
Ted Lindsay Award
Well, here’s another McDavid prediction that I got wrong. Nathan MacKinnon won the 2023-24 Ted Lindsay Award, this was another first for MacKinnon this season.
MacKinnon seemingly hit an entirely new level this past season, and he’s certainly deserving of the award. It’s presented to the most outstanding player in the NHL and voted on by fellow NHLPA members.
Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning were the two other finalists for the Ted Lindsay Award.
Jack Adams Award
Like I said about other awards, this is a big dud, especially since my prediction is with an entirely new team next season. The Jack Adams is awarded to the coach who is deemed to have contributed to his team’s success, and Sheldon Keefe didn’t crack the final three.
Rick Tocchet of the Vancouver Canucks took home his first career Jack Adams Award after coaching the Canucks to a win-loss record of 50-23-9 and 109 points. Tocchet helped the Canucks finish sixth in the league, second in the Western Conference, and clinched the Pacific Division.
Rick Bowness of the Winnipeg Jets and Andrew Brunette of the Nashville Predators were the two other finalists for the Jack Adams Award.
Frank J. Selke Trophy
My prediction, Mitch Marner, wasn’t terribly outlandish as he’s been great defensively for the past few years. He’s been a great piece for the Leafs’ penalty kill and has shown that he’s quite defensively sound. It is certainly a surprise that he didn’t finish higher than 17th in Selke voting.
Aleksander Barkov won his second career Frank J. Selke trophy in 2023-24. Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Jordan Staal of the Carolina Hurricanes of the Carolina Hurricanes were the two other finalists for the Selke trophy.
William M. Jennings Trophy
Well, here we are! Another correct prediction, sort of. Connor Hellebuyck won the 2023-24 William M. Jennings trophy, but I thought Brossoit was going to get enough games to have his name on the award too.
I guess this sits as half correct? Hellebuyck won the trophy, but Brossoit didn’t simply because Hellebuyck played a significant amount of games in the 2023-24 season.
King Clancy Memorial Trophy
Not only was my prediction wrong, but his team didn’t even nominate him. Anders Lee of the New York Islanders took home his first career King Clancy Memorial Trophy this past season.
I predicted Mikael Backlund to win again, and I may remove the prediction of that specific award entirely. Nevertheless, it’s a harder award to predict from the opening days of the NHL season to the time it is announced.
Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy
Not only was this prediction wrong, but the leading goal scorer, Auston Matthews, had 69 goals this past season. Thompson took a step back in his game this season, posting just 56 points (29G, 27A) in 71 games after posting 94 points (47G, 47A) in 78 points just in 2022-23.
It’s incredible to watch the amount that certain players can score, and Matthews’ 69-goal season not only notched him his third career Maurice Rocket Richard Trophy, but it’s the most goals in a single season during the salary cap era. Adding more insult to this poor prediction, this was Matthews’ second career 60-goal season and nearly his first 70-goal season. Oh, what could have been…
Mark Messier Leadership Award
I’m more frustrated with how many Leafs I have in this piece. John Tavares is a great leader, don’t get me wrong, but there should’ve been more teams picked throughout the list.
Jacob Trouba of the New York Rangers won the 2023-24 Mark Messier Leadership Award. In addition, there have been trade talks this past off-season, mostly around the 2024 NHL Draft time, but the talks have died down now.
Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award
A great second guess on myself, I didn’t think that Jim Nill would win a second consecutive GM of the Year award. I originally thought Brad Treliving would be able to do more with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but that obviously wasn’t the case.
Jim Nill of the Dallas Stars has won his second consecutive Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award.
E.J. McGuire Award of Excellence
I predicted an award I plan to leave off in the 2024-25 predictions. Now that I see the list of players to have won it since the inception of the award in 2015, I can say that picking the first overall pick in the upcoming draft was almost a cheap way to quickly predict it.
Michael Hage of the Montreal Canadiens won the E.J. McGuire Award of Excellence ahead of the 2024 NHL Awards Show.
Team Awards & Standings Predictions
I liked the discourse that the team awards caused, I had a completely different idea of what would happen this season compared to what did actually happen. So, I’ll hang my head in shame and have a crack at another season prediction.
Like the individual awards, I didn’t do so well on this side of predictions, I went 0/4 in this category. When predicting the Eastern Conference, I had 3/4 teams correctly predicted to make the playoffs in the Atlantic Division and 2/4 in the Metropolitan Division. Looking at the Western Conference, I was a little better in the Central Division, correctly predicting all four playoff teams. However, I crashed and burned in the Pacific with a 3/4 run making myself one shy of near prediction perfection.
Stanley Cup
This might be tied for the worst out of my season predictions, Toronto took a step back this year after they were eliminated by the Boston Bruins in the first round of the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. Fortunately, there’s always next year. Unfortunately, that Stanley Cup drought is nearing 60 years.
The Florida Panthers won the 2024 Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in seven games.
Prince of Wales Trophy
To make the Stanley Cup Finals, you first need to win the Prince of Wales trophy. The Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t win this award as they were eliminated in the first round of the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The Florida Panthers won the 2024 Prince of Wales Trophy after defeating the New York Rangers in six games.
Clarence S. Campbell Bowl
You know what? I had it in my head that I wanted Vegas to at least return to the Stanley Cup Finals because I attended the NHL Draft in Vegas. Reading my prediction, I clearly wasn’t sure who’d make it to the Western Conference Finals as I posted doubt in the original season prediction post. Regardless, like Toronto, Vegas got bounced in the first round in seven games. Better luck next time, I guess.
The Edmonton Oilers won the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl after defeating the Dallas Stars in six games.
Presidents’ Trophy
It’s one thing to incorrectly predict the Presidents Trophy winner, but it’s another thing when they don’t even make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I was baffled that the New Jersey Devils didn’t even contend for a wildcard spot, they finished seventh in the Metropolitan Division and 13th in the Eastern Conference. Every team faces adversity, and this Devils team really faced it this past season.
The Devils hired a new coach and addressed some immediate needs this past offseason which has sold me for potentially putting them near the top for next season’s predictions.
The New York Rangers won the 2024 Presidents Trophy after finishing the 2023-24 regular season with a win-loss record of 55-23-4 and 114 points.
Eastern Conference Predictions
I posted the predictions at the top of this section, but which teams did I think would make the playoffs in each division?
In the Atlantic Division, I had the following order predicted.
- Toronto Maple Leafs (y)
- Florida Panthers (x)
- Buffalo Sabres (x)
- Boston Bruins (x)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (e)
- Ottawa Senators (e)
- Detroit Red Wings (e)
- Montreal Canadiens (e)
In the Metropolitan Division, I had the following order predicted.
- New Jersey Devils (p)
- Carolina Hurricanes (x)
- New York Rangers (x)
- Pittsburgh Penguins (x)
- New York Islanders (e)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (e)
- Washington Capitals (e)
- Philadelphia Flyers (e)
I do think Buffalo or Detroit are due to make a huge step this upcoming season, Ottawa might even continue that conversation that they’ll finally be competitive for once, but you never know anymore.
Western Conference Predictions
Similar to the Eastern Conference, here are the Western Conference predictions in order of each division.
In the Central Division, I had the following order predicted.
- Dallas Stars (y)
- Colorado Avalanche (x)
- Winnipeg Jets (x)
- Nashville Predators (x)
- Arizona Coyotes (e)
- Minnesota Wild (e)
- St. Louis Blues (e)
- Chicago Blackhawks (e)
In the Pacific Division, I had the following order predicted.
- Edmonton Oilers (z)
- Los Angeles Kings (x)
- Vegas Golden Knights (x)
- Calgary Flames (x)
- Vancouver Canucks (e)
- Seattle Kraken (e)
- Anaheim Ducks (e)
- San Jose Sharks (e)
Truthfully, the Central Division prediction for playoffs was nearly 100%, but I didn’t want to come off as a biased Jets writer putting my team second in the Central Division predictions coming off a rocky 2022-23 season. However, I love to be proved wrong by the team I cover.
Playoff Key
p – President’s Trophy
y – Clinched Division
z – Clinched Conference
x – Clinched Playoff Spot
e – Eliminated
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